COVID-19 FREE DATA TRACKING AND FORECASTING TOOL
COVID-19 HOSPITAL AND PUBLIC PLANNING TOOL.
This (free for use and modify) Excel model allows health care planners to localize the facts and ratios from around the world and adapt it to their region. It defers from other covid-19 models as it uses a comparative method in combination with time growth model.
We hope this model can be used as a starting point to plan for supply, hospital beds and ICU beds about 30-60 days in advance. We are committed to updating this model either daily or every two days during this pandemic.
**Please note, this tool is published here intended as a starting point and provides some ideas for planners and experts to customize to their individual circumstances. If you are actually operationalizing this model and making decisions, please speak with us and we can help make the appropriate adjustments.
THE MODEL
What's different about it.
This model don't specifically make any assumptions on the mortality rate or the doubling rate. Specifically, we made a direct extrapolation between the confirmed data from other countries to our region and tried to account for time, policy and demographic differences. We did this because we did not want the model to make any healthcare-related assumptions, because we won't actually know what these mortality or case rates actually are until months later.
SOME LEARNING
and assumptions
Daily growth rate of confirmed during growth periods average to ~10 to 30%.
Hospitalization rates (as % of confirmed cases) averages to ~5 to 15%, as high as 55%.
ICU rates (as % of confirmed cases) averages to ~5 to 10%.
When making the extrapolations, the models assume similar rates of cases and hospitalization and ICU as other regions. By doing this, we are assuming the region extrapolates across, so be sure to account for timing, age, density, government intervention and testing. These items could be built into the model, but we didn't for this particular model as you would have to build separate assumptions for each localized areas. Again, if you are seriously thinking about forecasting and planning using analytics, let us know and we can help make the appropriate models and adjustments.
SERVICES
What else can we help with?
During this unique and uncertain time, we can help you with:
1) Forecasting potential requirements.
2) Optimize process flow.
3) Customized daily reporting.
4) Forecasting various scenarios and impact to organizations.
5) Strategic planning using data and analytics.
6) Building additional models.
OTHER INTERACTIVE MODELS:
Other interesting models out there that we've seen.
QUESTIONS, COMMENTS OR FEEDBACKS?
CONTACT US!
We are continuously trying to build better tools, get data and improve.
Canada
+16475685757
CO-CREATORS
Ahmed Jakda
Dr. Ahmed Jakda is a palliative physician and health system leader, practicing in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. He completed his training in Family Medicine and Fellowship in Palliative Care at The Ohio State University, and is dual board-certified. He also completed his MBA at the Ivey School of Business. He is an Associate Clinical Professor with McMaster University and Western University, and his research interests include system policy, data analytics, and change management. He co-chaired the Health Quality Ontario’s Palliative Quality Standards, and acted as Clinical Lead for the palliative IDEAS cohort at the University of Toronto. He also held roles as Medical Director of Palliative Care, Group Physician Head, and most recently as Provincial Palliative Physician Lead for the province of Ontario, which he held for 3.5 years.